EUR/USD Intraday Outlook 09-MAY-23

EUR/USD Daily Outlook and Analysis

The EUR/USD pair’s outlook remains unchanged, with range-bound trading continuing to dominate its behavior. The intraday bias maintains a neutral stance initially. As long as the 1.0912 support level remains intact, we could still witness a further rally. On the upside, a firm break of the 1.1098 resistance level would rekindle the broader upward trend, targeting the Fibonacci level of 1.1277 initially. A break beyond this level would set the target at the 61.8% projection of the rise from 0.9538 to 1.1036, calculated from the 1.0519 level, standing at 1.1445. However, given the bearish divergence condition in the 4H MACD, a break of the 1.0912 support level would indicate short-term topping and shift the bias back to the downside.

Taking a broader perspective, the rise from the 2022 low at 0.9538 is making progress towards the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the 2021 high at 1.2352 to 0.9538, which corresponds to the 1.1277 level. A sustained break of this level would strengthen the case for a bullish trend reversal and the next target would be the 2021 high resistance level at 1.2352. This scenario remains the favored forecast, maintaining its viability even in the event of a significant pullback, as long as the 1.0519 support level holds.