USD/CAD Daily Outlook 05-April-23

USD/CAD Intraday Outlook and Analysis

With the 4-hour MACD crossing above the signal line, a temporary low is in place at 1.3410, and the intraday bias in USD/CAD has turned neutral first. The upside of recovery should be limited by the 1.3568 resistance, leading to another decline. A break of 1.3410 will resume the decline from 1.3865 as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.3981, targeting the 1.3229/66 support zone. Strong support should emerge around there, prompting a rebound.

In the broader picture, the uptrend from 1.2010 (2021 low) is still in progress. A break of 1.3981 will confirm the resumption and target the 61.8% projection of 1.2406 to 1.3981 from 1.3266 at 1.4239. A firm break there will pave the way to the long-term resistance zone at 1.4672/94 (2016, 2020 highs). On the downside, a sustained break of the 55-week EMA (now at 1.3287) is needed to confirm medium-term topping. Otherwise, the outlook will remain bullish, even in the case of a deep pullback.