EUR/USD Daily Outlook 03-APRIL-23

EUR/USD Intraday Outlook and Analysis

The intraday bias for EUR/USD maintains a neutral position as the consolidation from 1.0932 extends, but the likelihood of a further rally persists, with the 1.0714 support remaining intact. On the upside, surpassing 1.0932 will reignite the rally from 1.0518, aiming to retest the 1.1035 high. A definitive break at this level will continue the larger uptrend from 0.9537 to the 1.1276 Fibonacci level. However, on the downside, breaking 1.0714 will shift the bias towards extending the corrective pattern from 1.1035 with an additional decline.

Looking at the broader perspective, the ascent from 0.9537 (2022 low) is underway, with the 38.2% retracement of the range from 0.9537 to 1.1035 at 1.0463 unbroken. Robust support from the 55-week EMA (currently at 1.0628) also signals a medium-term bullish trend. The subsequent target is the 61.8% retracement of the range between 1.2351 (2021 high) and 0.9537, which lies at 1.1276. A sustained break at this level will strengthen the bullish trend reversal case and set sights on the 1.2351 resistance level (2021 high).