USD/CAD Daily Outlook and Analysis
The intraday bias for USD/CAD leans toward the downside, driven by the current momentum. The decline from 1.3863, considered the third phase of the corrective pattern originating from 1.3979, is expected to reach the support zone between 1.3227 and 1.3264. A robust support is anticipated at this level, which should complete the corrective pattern and initiate a rebound. If the pair moves above the 1.3408 resistance-turned-support, it will neutralize the intraday bias. A subsequent break above 1.3555 would suggest a near-term reversal.
From a broader perspective, the uptrend that began at 1.2008 (2021 low) is still ongoing. A break above 1.3979 would confirm the trend’s resumption and target the 61.8% projection of the 1.2404 to 1.3979 range from 1.3264, which is situated at 1.4237. A decisive break at this level would clear the path toward the long-term resistance zone between 1.4670 and 1.4689 (2016 and 2020 highs). To confirm medium-term topping, the pair would need to maintain a sustained break below the 55-week EMA (currently at 1.3285). Until then, the outlook remains bullish, even in the event of a substantial pullback.